Violent 'Anti-Fascist' March on Le Pen Rally Before French Election

This suggests that the FX market, which has been good at predicting market volatility in recent elections, is becoming less concerned about a market-negative outcome from the French election, which may suggest that they have a degree of confidence that Le Pen won't make it to the second round on Sunday, and it could be a more euro-friendly Macron/ Fillon outcome.

Any two of the four might qualify on Sunday for the May 7 two-person run-off.

Le Pen also defended her decision to force national French news network TF1 to take down the European flag during an interview Tuesday night. Ms Le Pen stayed on with her father as her parents' bitter, public divorce played out - her mother even posed naked in the French edition of Playboy.

Christophe Sanz, a supporter of French centrist presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron, glues a campaign poster next to a poster of far-right candidate Marine le Pen, in Bayonne, southwestern France, Wednesday, April 19, 2017.

Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader of Front National, is running nearly neck-and-neck with Macron. Below we try and break down the three most likely outcomes from the first round of the election and determine the potential impact on the single currency and other European asset prices. Now Fillon polls in third, or arguably fourth place, because of a nepotism scandal involving his wife. However, Le Pen has lost some ground as Fillon and Melenchon closed the gap.

Fillon denies wrongdoing, but the scandal would likely follow him into the presidency, casting doubts over how easily he can push through his already controversial plans for steep spending cuts.

Reflecting the topsy-turvy state of politics and financial markets today, it is far-right candidate Marine Le Pen who investors still regard as the greater risk.

Left-leaning Le Monde newspaper warned that Le Pen's claim that she would have prevented attacks that have claimed hundreds of lives was "absurd". How the FN fares in the parliamentary elections that follow in June would be crucial.

The 65-year-old anti-establishment contender said about the EU: "We change it or we leave it".

Gaspard Flamant says he fears Le Pen will win the election's first-round vote. In this sense, a Le Pen victory would amount to a rupture not just with the European mainstream, but also with France's strategic orientation over the last few decades. UBS also sees Le Pen posing an existential threat to the European Union, particularly in the wake of recent Eurozone problems that have already weakened its stature.

Given such demands, markets sense Le Pen holds a much deeper ideological hostility to the European Union than Melenchon, whose principal objection is to the bloc's insistence on austerity policies - a view shared by many more centrist voters.

Emmanuel Macron, split from the Socialist Party and positioned himself as a centrist candidate, and became an early forerunner.

Another extremely unlikely scenario would be one of the 11 runners attracting 50 percent of the votes in the first round and thereby winning outright.

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